Tuesday, August 31, 2010

nytimes:Confronting Multiple Problems, Obama Faces Tough Odds

News Analysis

Confronting Multiple Problems, Obama Faces Tough Odds

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/world/middleeast/01assess.html?_r=1&hp

President Obama is attempting a triple play this week that eluded his predecessors over the past two decades: simultaneous progress on the most vexing and violent problems in the Middle East — Israeli-Palestinian peace, Iraq and Iran — in hopes of creating a virtuous cycle in a region prone to downward spirals.

History shouts that all the odds are against him. White House officials, eager to show concrete progress on the hardest foreign policy challenges at a time when Mr. Obama is struggling with a variety of domestic issues, contend that that the president has changed the political climate in all three arenas and has the best shot in years at creating positive and interlocking results.

When President Bill Clinton tried a similar strategy, he argued that a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and Palestinians would make it easier for Arab nations to join in the “dual containment” of Iran and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. It turned out that the reverse was true as well: When one of those efforts fell apart, so did the other two.

A month before invading Iraq, President George W. Bush argued that toppling Saddam Hussein would create “a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom for other nations in the region,” leading Arab countries “to support the emergence of a peaceful and democratic Palestine, and state clearly they will live in peace with Israel.” Instead, Iraq went up in flames and hopes for peace collapsed. Iran accelerated its drive for a nuclear capability.

Mr. Obama’s argument, which formed one subtext of his speech to the nation on Tuesday night about the end of the American combat mission in Iraq and which will play out Wednesday and Thursday as he gathers Israeli and Palestinian leaders for their first direct talks in two years, is more subtle about the linkage among the issues.

“There are three big chess pieces here, and in each of those places we are now poised for success,” Rahm Emanuel, Mr. Obama’s chief of staff and a major voice in Middle East policy, said in an interview on Tuesday. He argued that while the linkages are loose, “victory begets victory, and success will be reinforcing.”

While Mr. Obama’s thinking contains elements of the logic that drove his predecessors, there are also some critical differences, and success or failure hinges on how significant those turn out to be. Those differences include evidence that the United States is truly pulling out of Iraq, far tougher sanctions on Iran and the tentative emergence of a working Palestinian government in the West Bank.

The main problem is that success is not assured in any of the fronts in question, and the dynamic among them is unpredictable.

“It’s hard to make the case that progress in the peace process is going to resolve the political stalemate in Iraq, or force the Iranians to reconsider their nuclear program,” said Martin S. Indyk, who served as American ambassador to Israel and now is the director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. “But I think you can claim that success would help make headway in isolating Iran, and Iran’s claims to leadership in the region would be challenged. The risk — the one we forgot in the Clinton years — is that failure can also diminish your credibility.”

It is in Iraq, a war Mr. Obama campaigned to end, where he is claiming progress. While Iraq’s fractious politicians have still not agreed on a government nearly six months after an election and insurgents have landed some punishing recent attacks, overall violence has fallen and the withdrawal from combat missions happened a few weeks ahead of schedule. “It is clear in Iraq a genuine political process is under way,” said Dennis B. Ross, Mr. Obama’s top Middle East adviser.

Still, Mr. Obama is loath to declare anything resembling victory, and he said Tuesday that a “tough slog” remained. The question is whether the American public is willing to see more money and lives spent there while Iraqi politicians argue.

As Ryan C. Crocker, the former American ambassador to Iraq, wrote recently in The National Interest: “Strategic patience is often in short supply in this country. It is not a new problem for us, and it is not limited to Iraq.”

While 50,000 American troops remain in Iraq for now, Mr. Obama made clear Tuesday night that he was intent on moving on from that war, proclaiming that his primary mission now was to jump-start the American economy and address domestic issues like energy and education.

But as the Iranians have learned in recent months, Mr. Obama also seems persistent in finding new ways to turn the screws, and that is another element of the strategy.

When Mr. Obama came to office, three successive sets of international sanctions against Iran had had little effect, and there was virtually no prospect of getting a fourth.

It took 17 months for Mr. Obama to build the case for another round, and to orchestrate far more damaging additional measures — enforced by Europe, Japan, Australia and even some Arab nations — that have cut gasoline imports into Iran, sliced access to most foreign banking, and made it enormously difficult for shippers to obtain the insurance they need to go in and out of foreign ports.

“We finally have leverage,” said Mr. Ross, noting that for the first time Iranian officials have started calling for resumed talks with the West.

But few believe that the pain will cause Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment program. In fact, Iran could respond by speeding it up. There is also the possibility, some believe the probability, that Iran will seek to do whatever it can to prevent the direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians from becoming fruitful.

Still, Mr. Obama’s advisers argue that conditions have never been better for those talks: Attacks on Israel are down and the government of President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority has brought infrastructure, policing and better living to the West Bank. Majorities in Israel and among the Palestinians say they want a two-state solution. But many analysts are pessimistic that either side is willing to make the sacrifices necessary to achieve it.

The big question is whether the image of America pulling out of Iraq, and of the White House re-engaging in the peace process, will be enough to create that virtuous cycle.

“In none of these areas have we achieved success,” Mr. Ross said. “But now we have the possibility and the potential for significant progress.”

Newsweek:‘Western Hypocrisy’ A. Q. Khan emerges to discuss his role developing—and proliferating—Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

‘Western Hypocrisy’

A. Q. Khan emerges to discuss his role developing—and proliferating—Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/31/a-q-khan-on-his-role-developing-pakistan-s-nuke.html

Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, widely considered the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb, has kept a low profile since his unprecedented 2004 television address accepting sole responsibility for providing nuclear know-how to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. President Pervez Musharraf pardoned Khan the following day, but after a period under house arrest, he remains closely watched by authorities. NEWSWEEK PAKISTAN’S Fasih Ahmed recently conducted an e-mail interview with the nuclear scientist hailed as a hero inside his own country and a threat to global security outside of it. Excerpts:

Pakistan’s nuclear assets are often described as the “Islamic bomb.” Given that no other Muslim-majority country has the bomb, is this description something that you agree with?

The term “Islamic Bomb” was mischievously coined by the Western world to frighten the rest of the world and to portray Muslims, and Pakistan, as terrorists who should not possess an atom bomb. The Western world is united in Muslim-bashing and ridiculing Islam and its golden values.

The U.N. has slapped sanctions on Iran—ostensibly as punishment for the Islamic country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. How do you see global geopolitics shifting if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons?

In Iran the same mischievous propaganda is at work to befool the rather ignorant—or less knowledgeable—public that it poses a threat and is a fanatic, terrorist country. Have we already forgotten that, despite the repeated statements of no WMD in Iraq that were made by [former U.N. weapons inspector] Hans Blix after IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] inspectors made regular visits to that country, Bush and Blair still attacked Iraq? In this process they killed thousands of people, destroyed an ancient civilization, occupied the country, and put stooges in place to play their part in the killing of their own people. Iran, as everyone knows, is a member of the NPT [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] regime, that it is open to IAEA inspection of all its sites, to which it is adhering, and that it cannot produce nuclear weapons material or nuclear weapons. This is yet another example of Western hypocrisy.

Most here take pride in the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear state and believe this has served as a deterrent to conventional war with India.

Yes, I fully agree. Our nuclear program has ensured our survival, our security, and our sovereignty ... I am proud to have contributed to it together with my patriotic and able colleagues.

Former ISI chief Javed Ashraf Qazi recently told Pakistan’s Dawn News TV channel that CIA agents were caught in 1994–95 trying to buy information on Pakistan’s nuclear program. The refrain that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are unsafe and can fall into the hands of radical Islamic organizations is also often played up in the Western press. How secure is the nuclear arsenal?

Nobody ever penetrated Kahuta [the site of Pakistan’s main nuclear facility], nor could they do so. The Americans, contrary to their tall claims, were totally in the dark about the status of our program. Majors—or even generals, for that matter—had no access to sensitive and classified information ... [Kahuta] or PAEC [Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission] were never a department store where one could go and pick up a bomb! The American and British intelligence agencies tried to bribe and buy two of our scientists, who refused all sorts of incentives and reported the matter to me.

Can nuclear weapons fall into the wrong hands?

This is again a Western myth and one of their phobias. A nuclear weapon—good or dirty—is a highly complicated and sophisticated device. A large number of parts are needed, and expertise is required to assemble such a device. Even scientists and engineers without the relevant experience are not able to do this, let alone to talk of illiterate, untrained terrorists.

We have examples of countries, like South Africa and, to an extent, Libya, that decided to give up on their nuclear ambitions. How realistic is the possibility of a world with no nukes?

It is very convenient to give South Africa and Libya as examples of self-deweaponization. However, let us look at the backgrounds first. In South Africa the “whites” destroyed their nuclear weapons before handing over power to the “blacks.” They could not accept the fact that “black” people should—or could—possess them. The Libyans panicked after the West attacked Iraq and eliminated Saddam Hussein by falsely accusing that country of possessing nuclear weapons.

The U.S. was aware of Pakistan’s nuclear program but turned a blind eye to it during the original Afghan jihad. As soon as the Soviets were defeated, the U.S. Congress barred American military aid to Pakistan. Has the world made an unfair distinction between Pakistan’s and India’s pursuit of a nuclear program?

The Afghan War was a blessing for our nuclear program. It was not that the Western countries actively supported it but that they were too scared and occupied with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and its future consequences to actively oppose it. Neither the Americans nor the British had a clue about the status of our program until 1990. After the Afghan War they slapped sanctions on us to extract concessions from [fomer Pakistani president] Benazir Bhutto’s government, but [former president] Ghulam Ishaq Khan and [former Army chief] Gen. Aslam Beg frustrated their nefarious designs.

There have been reports that the American Joint Special Operations Command wanted to assassinate you. How safe do you feel?

It is all pure humbug. Nobody ever tried to assassinate me. I traveled all over the world at a time when everyone knew that I was the architect of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program. The fact is that Allah Almighty had not yet fixed the time and place for my demise. I never was, and never will be, afraid of so-called threats. When our predetermined time comes, Hazrat Izrael [the angel of death] will find us, no matter where we are hiding.

Have the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq made the world safer?

No, the world is not a safer place. Nationalists—call them fundamentalists or extremists if you like—have obtained a mobilization point with [the wars], have united, and are determined to negate the plans and designs of the Western countries.

The CIA chief, Leon Panetta, said earlier this year that Pakistan is now the headquarters of Al Qaeda. British leaders have declared Pakistan the exporter of global terrorism. Is this accurate, and, if so, what can Pakistan do to turn the tide?

The CIA chief—like his bosses and those before him—is a liar. There is no headquarters of Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Yes, Pakistan has become very unsafe due to foreign troops in Afghanistan. Our cohesion has been shattered. The spineless political leaders have turned our country—a nuclear and missile power with 175 million people—into a beggar state, a third-rate country. If there had been any pride left in our leaders, they would have responded appropriately and nobody would have dared to say such things in the first place.

Despite your televised address more than six years ago, your popularity among Pakistanis has largely remained intact. Did you ever feel let down?

There is a saying that the common people are too clever to be fooled by crooks. The nation as a whole is aware of the truth ... No, I do not feel let down by the Pakistani people, but I do feel let down by the Pakistani government.

Is Pakistan a threat to the world?

No, Pakistan is not a threat to any country. If Western troops withdraw from this area we would once again have peace and tranquility here. I still hope that someday we will find honest, God-fearing leaders to turn this country into one of prosperity and peace.

There is also the popular theory that Pakistan is a nation with no sustainable identity. The bomb, like cricket, is one of those things that bind all Pakistanis in common pride and cause. Do you agree?

Pakistan was not an artificially created country. We, the Muslims in India, were a separate nation with a distinct culture, history, social order, and heritage. By any definition we were a nation. Unfortunately, selfish, narrow-minded leaders broke it into ethnic groups, which led to exploitation. Nuclear weapons made the nation walk with heads held high.

MSNBC:Mideast peace talks - deja vu, anyone?

Mideast peace talks - deja vu, anyone?

ANALYSIS
By Martin Fletcher, NBC News

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/08/31/5009997-mideast-peace-talks-deja-vu-anyone


Spot the joke.

Ever since he became Israel's prime minister and immediately became embroiled in a seemingly never-ending series of crises, skeptics have argued that Benjamin Netanyahu is brilliant at only one thing - surviving.

Analysts have run out of metaphors to describe his survival skills. But he will need all of them now that his foreign minister resigned, leaving Netanyahu's government with the slimmest majority in parliament, 61-59.

But few doubt his government will, somehow or other, live on. The bigger question now is - will the peace process survive?

Here’s the punch line: I wrote that January 1, 1999.

Actually, maybe it's not so funny after all.

The only update is that today's foreign minister hasn't yet resigned, but is threatening to do so, if Netanyahu makes any significant progress toward handing parts of the West Bank back to the Palestinians.

There isn't much danger of that, though.

The stuff of fantasy
It's unfortunate for President Barack Obama, who has said he wants a peace agreement wrapped up within a year, even though the process of implementation could take up to 10 years. Apart from Washington's expectations, you only have to listen to the rumblings in Jerusalem and Ramallah, the Palestinian National Authority’s administrative capital, to understand that rapid progress is the stuff of fantasy.

Shimon Schiffer is generally recognized as one of the best political commentators in Israel. Here's his assessment in Tuesday's Yedioth Ahronoth, the most widely circulated paper in Israel:

"The prevalent assessment among officials who have been monitoring the efforts to restart the direct negotiations is that nothing will follow the photo-ops the three men will have in the three-day summit. In other words, this is a content-less initiative that is not going to move things forward by even a single meter."

One obstacle: Netanyahu told his people that any peace agreement would have to be based on Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish nation. President Mahmoud Abbas has an equally intransigent demand: he will never recognize a Jewish state.

All the issues dividing Israelis and the Palestinians have remained the same for decades: the future of Jerusalem, the status of Palestinian refugees, Israel's final borders, a security agreement.

Analysts generally accept that, one day, the final arrangement will be: Jerusalem will be divided between Jews and Arabs with the holy areas under some kind of international supervision; Palestinian refugees will be absorbed in the future Palestinian state with a token few thousand coming into Israel based on family reunification; the final borders will be along the lines of June 4, 1967, with a land swap to take into account Israel's settlement blocks on a meter-for-meter basis; security for both states will be guaranteed within a wider peace agreement that would follow an Israeli-Palestinian breakthrough.

But, small question: when's the breakthrough?

Is it within a year, as Obama is demanding, or perhaps desperately hoping? Israelis and Palestinians know that when an American president needs a foreign policy victory, Mideast peace will top their agenda. So they need to play along, keep their heads down, and blame the other side for any eventual failure.

Looming Iran
Each failed peace process brings Armageddon one step closer. Past major failures have swiftly been followed by violence. This time though a Palestinian uprising following a failed peace process appears unlikely; according to all Palestinian and Israeli sources. Palestinians just seem not to have the heart for another fight.

However, maybe Iran and its allies in the region do. The balance of terror is slowly shifting as reports multiply that Hezbollah in South Lebanon has 45,000 rockets with a vast long-range capability, putting Tel Aviv into its sights. Hamas in Gaza is also said to have advanced rockets that can hit Tel Aviv.

Then there’s Iran's ongoing nuclear program.

This makes a peace agreement, or at least some kind of peace process that offers hope rather than catastrophe, all the more urgent.

There are positive signs on the ground. Apart from a few of tragic killings -- on Tuesday, the Israeli military reported that a Palestinian gunman shot dead 4 Jewish settlers -- there's been little Palestinian-Israeli violence in the West Bank for 18 months. Economic growth is whizzing along at 8 percent, jobs are growing and foreign investment is arriving. The West Bank is one of the world's few economic success stories these days. Strangely enough, so is Israel.

But while there is a real improvement on the ground in relations between Israel and the West Bank, is the time right for a rapid push for peace? After all, close to 1.5 million Palestinians live in Gaza under the control of Hamas, which rejects all moves toward peace with Israel.

Skeptics scoff, but at least Obama is offering a way forward, extending a branch for peace.

But judging by everything one hears in Jerusalem and Ramallah, politicians on both sides are still not yet ready to climb down from their tall, tall trees.

Martin Fletcher has covered the Israel-Palestinian conflict for over 30 years

time:Why Do Heavy Drinkers Outlive Nondrinkers?

Why Do Heavy Drinkers Outlive Nondrinkers?

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2014332,00.html

One of the most contentious issues in the vast literature about alcohol consumption has been the consistent finding that those who don't drink tend to die sooner than those who do. The standard Alcoholics Anonymous explanation for this finding is that many of those who show up as abstainers in such research are actually former hard-core drunks who had already incurred health problems associated with drinking.

But a new paper in the journal Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research suggests that — for reasons that aren't entirely clear — abstaining from alcohol does tend to increase one's risk of dying, even when you exclude former drinkers. The most shocking part? Abstainers' mortality rates are higher than those of heavy drinkers.


Moderate drinking, which is defined as one to three drinks per day, is associated with the lowest mortality rates in alcohol studies. Moderate alcohol use (especially when the beverage of choice is red wine) is thought to improve heart health, circulation and sociability, which can be important because people who are isolated don't have as many family members and friends who can notice and help treat health problems.

But why would abstaining from alcohol lead to a shorter life? It's true that those who abstain from alcohol tend to be from lower socioeconomic classes, since drinking can be expensive. And people of lower socioeconomic status have more life stressors — job and child-care worries that might not only keep them from the bottle but also cause stress-related illnesses over long periods. (They also don't get the stress-reducing benefits of a drink or two after work.)

But even after controlling for nearly all imaginable variables — socioeconomic status, level of physical activity, number of close friends, quality of social support and so on — the researchers (a six-member team led by psychologist Charles Holahan of the University of Texas at Austin) found that over a 20-year period, mortality rates were highest for those who had never been drinkers, second highest for heavy drinkers and lowest for moderate drinkers.


The sample of those who were studied included individuals between ages 55 and 65 who had had any kind of outpatient care in the previous three years. The 1,824 participants were followed for 20 years. One drawback of the sample: a disproportionate number, 63%, were men. Just over 69% of the never-drinkers died during the 20 years, 60% of the heavy drinkers died and only 41% of moderate drinkers died.

These are remarkable statistics. Even though heavy drinking is associated with higher risk for cirrhosis and several types of cancer (particularly cancers in the mouth and esophagus), heavy drinkers are less likely to die than people who have never drunk. One important reason is that alcohol lubricates so many social interactions, and social interactions are vital for maintaining mental and physical health. As I pointed out last year, nondrinkers show greater signs of depression than those who allow themselves to join the party.

The authors of the new paper are careful to note that even if drinking is associated with longer life, it can be dangerous: it can impair your memory severely and it can lead to nonlethal falls and other mishaps (like, say, cheating on your spouse in a drunken haze) that can screw up your life. There's also the dependency issue: if you become addicted to alcohol, you may spend a long time trying to get off the bottle.

That said, the new study provides the strongest evidence yet that moderate drinking is not only fun but good for you. So make mine a double.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2014332,00.html#ixzz0yDtGdmmr
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foxnews:Petraeus: Taliban Retain Momentum in Some Areas

Petraeus: Taliban Retain Momentum in Some Areas

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/08/31/petraeus-taliban-retain-momentum-areas/?test=latestnews

BRUSSELS -- Taliban guerrillas still retain the initiative in some parts of Afghanistan despite recent successes by coalition forces, the top U.S. and NATO commander in the country said Tuesday.

Gen. David Petraeus said NATO forces had reversed some of the gains the Taliban had made in recent years in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar and around Kabul.

But in an interview with NATO TV from Kabul, Petraeus said: "I would not say we have reversed the momentum in all areas by any means."

"In some we have reversed it, in some we have blunted it, in some perhaps the Taliban are still trying to expand," he said.

He said the insurgents were fighting to take back the market town of Marjah in Helmand province, which he described as "one of the most important command and control areas for the Taliban and the nexus for the illegal narcotics industry."

He also noted that NATO's campaign to secure the southern city of Kandahar had just begun.

"But clearly there's a lot more work to be done with the Taliban fighting back very hard," he said. "This is really (Taliban leader) Mullah Omar's hometown, this is the iconic place of the Taliban and it's very important for them and it will be tough."

He also noted that the Afghan security forces were growing faster than expected, with the army numbering 134,000 men and the police slightly more.

The NATO-led force has about 140,000 troops. Taliban guerrillas are estimated to number between 25,000 and 30,000.

Telegraph:Haqqani network spreads its attacks against America across eastern Afghanistan

Haqqani network spreads its attacks against America across eastern Afghanistan

A Pakistan-based militant network is escalating its attacks against Nato and Afghan forces and has become the biggest insurgent threat in eastern Afghanistan, the US military believes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/7971949/Haqqani-network-spreads-its-attacks-against-America-across-eastern-Afghanistan.html

The Haqqani insurgent group, which is closely aligned to the Taliban and has strong ties to Pakistan's military, is striking from known safe havens across the border and has significantly spread in influence in the past 18 months.

Military sources said the network, which has widely been considered a tool of Pakistan, had spread from its tribal roots in the south eastern corner of to 11 of Afghanistan's 14 eastern provinces.

US troops have stepped up their operations against the network, leading to a series of heavy clashes in the past month.

Washington has long been frustrated Islamabad has rejected requests to act against the network, which operates with impunity from around Miram Shah in North Waziristan.

A recent thaw in relations between Kabul and Islamabad, which has seen Hamid Karzai meet with Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's president, and General Ashfaq Kayani, chief of the army staff, for security talks, has not abated the escalation.

A spokesman for US troops fighting in eastern Afghanistan said: "Over the past 18 to 24 months, we've observed the Haqqani network move from largely the Loya Paktya region of Khost and Paktia all the way up to the Kabul area and beyond."

An American and Afghan raid two weeks ago on Haqqani bases in the rugged mountains of Paktia found well dug in positions and evidence of Arabs, Chechens and Pakistani fighters.

The network is described as a wealthy mafia, earning money from legitimate car and property businesses in north Waziristan and gem and timber smuggling.

By declaring the network a known terrorist organisation, American official hope to target its financing.

Its leaders, Jalaluddin Haqqani, a veteran anti-Soviet fighter, and his son Siraj, who is in operational control, are widely considered irreconcilable.

Sayed Ishaq Gailani, an MP and power broker from Paktika in the network's heartland, said: "Haqqani has bases in Paktia and Khost and now he is trying to move to northern Afghanistan.

"He is an old man now, but his sons are active. I am 100 per cent sure they will not negotiate," he added.

The military spokesman added: "The Pakistanis have had their own counter-insurgency challenges in Northwest Pakistan and over the past couple of years they have begun to deal with them.

"As time goes on our hope is they will address these counterinsurgency challenges in North Waziristan as well."



nytimes:Outlines Emerge of Future State in the West Bank

...Palestinian officials say their central demand at the start of the talks is for the current settlement-building moratorium to be extended. Mr. Netanyahu and his aides have so far rejected that.

A top Netanyahu aide, however, said that if Mr. Abbas accepted — even privately when the two leaders meet alone — an end to the conflict with Israel and its Jewish identity, “the whole conventional wisdom can change very quickly.”


...The American notion is that if talks with Mr. Abbas are successful, he will gain political strength as the deal is put into effect, and that strength could ultimately be used to return his party to power in Gaza. Israelis remain skeptical, however.


Outlines Emerge of Future State in the West Bank

RAMALLAH, West Bank — As preparations intensify for a Palestinian-Israeli summit meeting in Washington on Thursday, the crude outlines of a Palestinian state are emerging in the West Bank, with increasingly reliable security forces, a more disciplined government and a growing sense among ordinary citizens that they can count on basic services.

Personal checks, long shunned as being unredeemable, are now widely accepted. Traffic tickets are issued and paid, movie theaters are opening and public parks are packed with families late into the summer nights. Economic growth in the first quarter of this year was 11 percent over the same period in 2009, the International Monetary Fund says.

“I’ve never seen Nablus so alive,” Caesar Darwazeh, who owns a photography studio, said on Sunday night as throngs of people enjoyed balloons and popcorn, a four-wagon train taking merrymakers through the streets.

Of course, the West Bank remains occupied by Israel. It is filled with scores of Israeli settlements, some 10,000 Israeli troops and numerous roadblocks and checkpoints that render true ordinary life impossible for the area’s 2.5 million Palestinians.

The central question facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority is under what circumstances Israel might yield its control over the bulk of this territory to the emerging Palestinian state apparatus.

Most analysts remain skeptical of such a deal emerging soon, given a history of failed promises — and entrenched interests on both sides that oppose even the concept of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem.

There are few signs of a breakthrough. Mr. Abbas and his aides insist that Palestinian refugees have the right to return to their homes in what is today Israel, which for many Israelis would be tantamount to ending the existence of the Jewish state.

Palestinian officials say their central demand at the start of the talks is for the current settlement-building moratorium to be extended. Mr. Netanyahu and his aides have so far rejected that.

A top Netanyahu aide, however, said that if Mr. Abbas accepted — even privately when the two leaders meet alone — an end to the conflict with Israel and its Jewish identity, “the whole conventional wisdom can change very quickly.”

And these talks, the first direct negotiations in nearly two years with 17 years of failed diplomatic efforts behind them, have one advantage that past rounds have lacked: a West Bank administration that to many Israelis and Palestinians alike has begun to resemble, tentatively, a functioning state.

A senior Israeli Army commander, speaking under army rules of anonymity, said security coordination with the Palestinian forces was better than it had ever been. Unlike the situation in 2000, he said, when Washington-sponsored peace talks failed and the West Bank exploded in violence, the area is stable because of both its economic growth and a strong security situation.

“We probably have a year of stability if that happens,” he said of the prospect of failed negotiations. As much as he praised his Palestinian colleagues, however, he insisted that stability, for now, required an Israeli military presence.

Israeli troops leave security in the cities to the Palestinians during the day. But the commander said that they carried out four or five operations a night — down from a dozen a year ago — and that without those actions the situation would deteriorate: armed groups from Hamas and others would attack Israelis.

The commander noted that while there could be no long-term stability without a political deal, once the talks start, stability will be linked to them. If they fail, those among Jewish settlers and Palestinians who promote violence could take steps to disrupt the talks or exploit a sense of defeat, he said.

He said that Israel could remove more checkpoints and Palestinian economic growth could continue, “but anyone who thinks this will be enough to keep the area stable over the long term is wrong.”

He added that unless and until Israel hands over responsibility to the Palestinian forces, Israeli forces could not reduce their nightly interventions.

The Palestinian security chief, Diab el-Ali, rejected that in a recent interview, saying that the Israeli raids were an embarrassment and that he wanted them to stop. He said the Palestinians were capable of providing full security.

A Western security official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the situation publicly, said Israeli interventions and troop numbers could and should be cut further. But he thought that the Palestinian forces, while making progress, were not yet able to take control.

A main challenge facing the Palestinian Authority is Hamas, the Islamist group that rejects Israel’s existence and controls Gaza, where 1.5 million Palestinians live. Hamas and Mr. Abbas’s more secular Fatah party are fierce rivals, and the prospect of reconciliation between them seems low. Hamas followers in the West Bank could play the part of spoilers, although the Palestinian and Israeli security forces work to keep them on the defensive.

The American notion is that if talks with Mr. Abbas are successful, he will gain political strength as the deal is put into effect, and that strength could ultimately be used to return his party to power in Gaza. Israelis remain skeptical, however.

Much of the credit for the positive changes in the West Bank go to Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister, who is halfway through a two-year plan to build institutions and infrastructure for a Palestinian state. In the past year, he has opened 34 schools and 44 housing complexes, planted 370,000 trees and increased tax revenue by 20 percent.

“We have had 11 governments since the establishment of the Palestinian Authority, and we never got anything from any of them until this one,” remarked Ahmad Douqan, a leader in the Balata refugee camp near Nablus. “People in the camp look at Salam as someone who, more than anyone else, works for them.”

Mr. Fayyad is imposing discipline on his bloated bureaucracy, taking away free cars and cellphones from officials. He has reduced the authority’s dependence on outside budgetary aid, from $1.8 billion in 2008 to a projected $1.2 billion in 2010, according to Oussama Kanaan, head of the International Monetary Fund mission to the West Bank and Gaza.

“The Palestinian Authority is determined to follow the path of fiscal consolidation with a view to substantially reducing reliance on foreign aid for government expenditures,” Mr. Fayyad said at a news briefing on Monday.

Mr. Kanaan said the goal for 2011 was to bring the dependence below $1 billion. “The trend is good,” he said in an interview. “Due to the reforms, there is no case to be made for withholding aid. The situation is very different from three years ago.”

nytimes:Petraeus Finishes Rules for Afghan Security Transition

Petraeus Finishes Rules for Afghan Security Transition


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/31/world/asia/31military.html?ref=global-home

WASHINGTON — Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top commander in Afghanistan, has completed work on new guidelines for turning some security duties over to Afghan forces in the months ahead, calling for American and allied troops to step back gradually from areas as they are pacified rather than handing off the task all at once to local units, according to senior NATO and Pentagon officials...

latimes:An idle brain may be the self's workshop Recent research suggests that mind-wandering may be important and that knowledge of how it works migh

An idle brain may be the self's workshop

Recent research suggests that mind-wandering may be important and that knowledge of how it works might help treat such conditions as Alzheimer's disease, autism, depression and schizophrenia.

http://www.latimes.com/health/la-he-brain-20100830,0,479095.story

The resting brain is anything but idle — that simple proposition would be clear if you could peer into Mike Mrazek's noggin as he putters around his kitchen preparing his daily morning feast of scrambled eggs, oatmeal and fresh fruit.

As he plods through his quotidian ritual of gathering ingredients, cutting, chopping, bringing the pan to the correct temperature and boiling water for tea, Mrazek's thoughts, too, are something of a scrambled feast, as he later recounts.

Childhood memories jostle against thoughts of his girlfriend's progress on a cross-country journey.


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Reflections on the tomatoes in his garden give way to a rehearsal of a meeting he's having later on at the university.

A flashback to his sister teasing him about his breakfast routine turns into an observation he could make while leading a meditation session in the evening.

Until recently, scientists would have found little of interest in the purposeless, mind-wandering spaces between Mrazek's conscious breakfast-making tasks — they were just the brain idling between meaningful activity.

But in the span of a few short years, they have instead come to view mental leisure as important, purposeful work — work that relies on a powerful and far-flung network of brain cells firing in unison.

Neuroscientists call it the "default mode network."

Individually, the brain regions that make up that network have long been recognized as active when people recall their pasts, project themselves into future scenarios, impute motives and feelings to other people, and weigh their personal values.

But when these structures hum in unison — and scientists have found that when we daydream, they do just that — they function as our brain's "neutral" setting. Understanding that setting may do more than lend respectability to the universal practice of zoning out: It may one day help diagnose and treat psychiatric conditions as diverse as Alzheimer's disease, autism, depression and schizophrenia — all of which disrupt operations in the default mode network.

Beyond that lies an even loftier promise. As neuroscientists study the idle brain, some believe they are exploring a central mystery in human psychology: where and how our concept of "self" is created, maintained, altered and renewed.

After all, though our minds may wander when in this mode, they rarely wander far from ourselves, as Mrazek's mealtime introspection makes plain.

That's in sharp contrast to the pattern struck by the brain when hard at work: In this mode, introspection is suppressed while we attend to pressing business — we "lose ourselves" in work. As we do so, scientists see the default mode network go quiet and other networks come alive.

Neuroscientists have long resisted discussions of "self" as either hopelessly woolly-headed or just too difficult to tackle, says Jonathan Schooler, a psychologist at UC Santa Barbara who studies the wandering mind (with the assistance of Mrazek, a graduate student he advises).

But now, he says, research on the default mode network and mind-wandering has helped focus neuroscientists' attention to our rich inner world and raises the prospect that our sense of self, our existence as a separate being, can be observed, measured and discussed with rigor.

The idea that there may be a physical structure in the brain in which we unconsciously define who we are "would warm Freud's heart," says Dr. Marcus E. Raichle, a neurologist at Washington University in St. Louis who has pioneered work in this fledgling field. Sigmund Freud, the Austrian father of modern psychiatry, spoke exhaustively of the power of the unconscious mind in shaping our behavior and often surmised that the workings of that force would someday be revealed by scientists.

"People talk about the self and ask how it achieves some realization in the brain," Raichle says. The default mode network, he adds, "seems to be a critical element of that organization. It captures many of the features of how we think of ourselves as the self."

Changing thinking

In the last two decades, neuroscientists have identified many regions of the brain that are activated during purposeful tasks — when we count, navigate our environment, process input from our senses or perform complex motor skills.

But until very recently, the ebb and flow of thoughts — the stream of consciousness that makes Mrazek human and whose content is unique to him among humans — was the dead zone. Like geneticists who for years dismissed genetic material with no known function as "junk DNA," neuroscientists spent years dismissing the "idle" brain as just that: idle, its content just so much meaningless filler.

But in 2001, Raichle and his team began publishing neuroimaging studies that suggest different.

During tasks requiring focused attention, regions specialized to the tasks at hand became active in the subjects whose brains were being scanned. But as those men and women mentally relaxed between tasks inside the scanners, Raichle saw that the specialized regions went quiet — and a large and different cluster of brain structures consistently lighted up.

Raichle was particularly interested in a portion of the brain called the medial parietal cortex as a sort of central hub of this activity. He knew the area tended to become active when a person recalled his past.

And his work uncovered another key node in this curious circuit: the medial prefrontal cortex, a uniquely human structure that comes alive when we try to imagine what others are thinking.

Each region, Raichle realized, had a feature in common — it was focused on the self, and on the personal history and relationships by which we define ourselves as individuals.

As studies continued, scientists noticed some interesting facts.

They saw that the brain parts constituting the default mode network are uniquely vulnerable to the tangles, plaques and metabolic disturbances of Alzheimer's disease — an illness that starts by stealing one's memory and eventually robs its victims of their sense of self.

This, Raichle and colleagues would argue, suggests how important the default mode network is in making us who we are.

They saw that when operating, this network guzzles fuel at least as voraciously as do the networks that are at work when we engage in hard mental labor. That, along with other evidence, suggests to Raichle that when the default mode network is engaged, there's more than a mental vacation taking place.

So what is it doing?

Working vacation

Raichle suspects that during these moments of errant thought, the brain is forming a set of mental rules about our world, particularly our social world, that help us navigate human interactions and quickly make sense of and react to information — about a stranger's intentions, a child's next move, a choice before us — without having to run a complex and conscious calculation of all our values, expectations and beliefs.

Raichle says such mental shortcuts are necessary because the brain cannot possibly take in all the detail available to our senses at any given moment. The default mode network, he proposes, keeps a template handy that lets us assume a lot about ourselves and the people and environment we interact with.

Raichle points to another odd distinction of the default mode network — one that suggests it plays a central role in our functioning. Its central hub has two separate sources of blood supply, making it far less vulnerable than most other regions of the brain to damage from a stroke.

"That's an insurance policy: This area is critically important," he says.

Neuroscientists suspect that the default mode network may speak volumes about our mental health, based on studies in the last three years that suggest it is working slightly differently in people with depression, autism and other disorders. (See related story.)

That fact underscores a point: Just as sleep appears to play an important role in learning, memory consolidation and maintaining the body's metabolic function, some scientists wonder whether unstructured mental time — time to zone out and daydream — might also play a key role in our mental well-being. If so, that's a cautionary tale for a society that prizes productivity and takes a dim view of mind-wandering.

Such social pressure, Schooler says, overlooks the lessons from studies on the resting brain — that zoning out and daydreaming, indulged in at appropriate times, might serve a larger purpose in keeping us healthy and happy.

"People have this fear of being inadequately engaged, and as a consequence they overlook how engaging their own minds can be," Schooler says. "Each one of us can be pretty good company to ourselves if we allow our minds to go there."

Monday, August 30, 2010

cnn:Dutch arrests may have been dry run, U.S. source says

Dutch arrests may have been dry run, U.S. source says


http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/08/30/netherlands.airport.arrests/index.html?iref=NS1

(CNN) -- Two men held in the Netherlands may have been trying to test U.S. airport security by putting bottles with electronic devices attached in checked baggage, a U.S. law enforcement source said Monday.

The men were taken into custody after landing in Amsterdam on a flight from Chicago, Illinois, Dutch prosecutors said. Both men were being held at Amsterdam's Schiphol International Airport at the request of Dutch national police, airport spokesman Robert Kapel said.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security said they were arrested after "suspicious items" in their luggage raised concern.

"The items were not deemed to be dangerous in and of themselves, and as we share information with our international partners, Dutch authorities were notified of the suspicious items," the U.S. agency said. "This matter continues to be under investigation."

Those items were an empty shampoo bottle with watches attached to it and an empty bottle of a stomach medicine with mobile phones attached, according to the U.S. law enforcement source, who has been briefed on the investigation. That has raised concern that the men may have been testing a future terrorist plot, the source said.

Attempts to sneak liquid explosives aboard jetliners were at the heart of a 2006 plot broken up by British authorities. That case led U.S. authorities to ban all but small quantities of liquids from aircraft cabins.

U.S. law enforcement officials told CNN that the checked bags contained knives and box cutters as well. Passengers have been banned from carrying those items on aircraft since the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington.

The source identified the men aboard United Airlines Flight 908, from Chicago, Illinois, to Amsterdam, as Ahmed Mohamed Nasser al-Soofi and Hezem al-Murisi. Al-Soofi began his trip by boarding a flight in Birmingham, Alabama, and al-Murisi originally flew from Memphis, Tennessee, the law enforcement source said.

Another U.S. law enforcement official said both men were in the United States legally, but their countries of origin were not immediately known. That official said neither of the passengers were carrying items that are barred from aircraft, and federal air marshals were aboard the Chicago-to-Amsterdam flight.

However, the law enforcement source said al-Soofi was ticketed for a flight that went to Washington's Dulles International Airport, with continuing stops in Dubai and Yemen, while both he and al-Murisi were aboard the Chicago-to-Amsterdam flight. Al-Soofi's luggage went aboard the Chicago-to-Washington flight without him, the source said, in what amounted to another violation of U.S. safety protocols.

A U.S. government official said items in at least one of the bags were being examined by law enforcement authorities at Dulles on Monday night.

The official said al-Soofi and al-Murisi were seated near each other on the Chicago-to-Amsterdam flight, but were not seated next to each other. Authorities are still looking into whether the men were traveling together or simply had similar itineraries, the official said.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

CFR.org:United States Should Pursue New Approach to Somalia, Argues CFR Report

United States Should Pursue New Approach to Somalia, Argues CFR Report

http://www.cfr.org/publication/21625/united_states_should_pursue_new_approach_to_somalia_argues_cfr_report.html

March 10, 2010
Council on Foreign Relations

As the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) prepares to launch a major offensive against the Islamist opposition group, the Shabaab, a new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Special Report warns that the "odds of the TFG emerging as an effective body are extremely poor." The author of the report, Bronwyn Bruton, a 2008-2009 CFR international affairs fellow, asserts that current U.S. policy, which provides limited, indirect diplomatic and military support to the weak TFG, has only "served to isolate the government, and...to propel cooperation among previously fractured and quarrelsome extremist groups." The report calls on the United States to make a final attempt to help the Somali government build public support by drawing in leaders of the principal Islamist groups, but urges the Obama administration to consider policy options should the TFG fail or continue to be marginalized to the point of powerlessness.

The report, Somalia: A New Approach, provides a recent political history of Somalia, which "has been a failed state for the better part of two decades; bereft of central government, cantonized into clan fiefdoms, and wracked by deadly spasms of violence." Repeated attempts by the international community to establish a viable national government have failed. The creation of the UN-brokered TFG in 2004 "produced a violent counterreaction in Mogadishu, where a radical youth militia group--the Shabaab--developed and began assassinating TFG members and supporters." Because it is perceived to be a foreign-controlled authority, the Somali government has never gained legitimacy among the local population and is unable to improve security, provide basic services, or move toward an agreement with clans and opposition forces that would provide a stronger basis for governance.

Bruton analyzes U.S. interests in Somalia, including piracy, humanitarian issues, and broader regional stability, and identifies terrorism as the principal threat since 9/11. She argues that "to date, however, there is no clear evidence of Somalia being used by al-Qaeda or other transnational terrorist groups as an operational platform to carry out attacks beyond its borders. And while the Shabaab has expressed a rhetorical commitment to al-Qaeda and has been designated a foreign terrorist organization by the United States, there is little to indicate that the group shares al-Qaeda's larger transnational goals."

Bruton maintains that the current U.S. approach is counterproductive, alienating large parts of the Somali population and polarizing its diverse Muslim community. "The Shabaab is an alliance of convenience and its hold over territory is weaker than it appears. Somali fundamentalists--whose ambitions are mostly local--are likely to break ranks with al-Qaeda and other foreign operatives as the utility of cooperation diminishes. The United States and its allies must encourage these fissures to expand."

The report, sponsored by CFR's Center for Preventive Action, says that "U.S. policy options for Somalia are typically reduced to three alternative courses of action: continuation of current policy, increased military intervention for stabilization and reconstruction, and an offshore counterterrorist containment strategy." It concludes that each of these choices suffers from serious shortcomings, and calls for "constructive disengagement," a policy in which the United States would "disengage from any effort to pick a winner in Somalia." The administration should "signal a willingness to coexist with any Islamist group or government that emerges, as long as it refrains from acts of regional aggression, rejects global jihadi ambitions, and agrees to tolerate the efforts of Western humanitarian relief agencies in Somalia."

Specific recommendations for the United States and the international community include:

- Adopt a population-centered approach to counterterror strategy: "Future operations in Somalia must be conducted with extreme care to avoid the civilian casualties that undermine other political and development objectives."

- Encourage disaggregation of radical movements by adopting a position of neutrality: "The United States should indicate strong support for a UN or African Union dialogue with any member of the armed Islamist opposition that is willing to talk... U.S. officials must assume an inclusive posture toward local fundamentalists yet indicate a zero-tolerance policy toward transnational actors attempting to exploit Somalia's conflict."

- Pursue development without regard to governance: "Until there is meaningful political reconciliation between the clans, attempts to construct governance arrangements will be a recipe for conflict...New development initiatives should be pursued in a decentralized fashion that involves collaboration with the informal and traditional authorities that are already in place on the ground." This approach has "the potential to rapidly separate pragmatic, locally-oriented fundamentalists from their international jihadi counterparts."

- Increase diplomatic efforts to engage regional and international partners: "The United States does not want to own the Somali crisis, and it must lead a robust diplomatic effort to harness European and Middle Eastern assistance to support stabilization of the conflict and to address Somalia's extensive humanitarian and development needs." Cooperation with Middle Eastern partners would also help to combat the perception of U.S. hostility to Islam.

- Restrain Ethiopia: During the Ethiopian occupation of Somalia from 2006-2009, "Mogadishu was reduced to a level of human suffering, violence, and disorder unknown since the civil war." The potential escalation of the long-standing conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea also poses the greatest risk to broader regional stability. Washington should be prepared to dissuade Ethiopia from reinvading Somalia should the Shabaab capture Mogadishu. As anti-U.S. sentiment in the region is linked to the perception of U.S. complicity with Ethiopian human rights abuses, the United States should also urge the Ethiopian government to cease such abuses, implement democratic reforms, and resolve its border dispute with Eritrea.

- Resist politicizing the piracy problem: The emergence of strong pirate networks in the central and northeast regions of Somalia has become a significant threat to the international shipping industry, and potentially to local stability, but Bruton advises against "overwhelming use of force, such as the bombing of pirate strongholds in Hobyuo, Haraardheere, or Eyl," warning that it "could politicize the piracy issues, which would likely increase public tolerance of pirate activities."

Bruton concludes that "a strategy of constructive disengagement entails risk, but the alternatives are far more dangerous. Unless there is a decisive change in U.S., UN, and regional policy, ineffective external meddling threatens to prolong and worsen the conflict, further radicalize the population, and increase the odds that al-Qaeda and other extremist groups will eventually find a safe haven in Somalia."

For the full text of the report, visit: www.cfr.org/Somalia_CSR

cia.gov:Guests of the Ayatollah: The First Battle in America's War With Militant Islam

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol50no4/the-intelligence-officers-bookshelf.html

Guests of the Ayatollah: The First Battle in America's War With Militant Islam

Mark Bowden.

The officers and staff at the embassy included only three fluent in Farsi. From their exchanges with the interrogators, one gets a sense of the Iranian ignorance in Western matters, even though several had been educated and lived in the United States. Bowden's characterization of Nilufar Ebtekar—as "screaming Mary"—who became the spokeswoman for the hostage takers, is a fine example. She had grown up in Philadelphia and spoke English with an American accent. After berating the United States for "the inhuman, racist decision" to drop the atomic bomb on Japan, she was shocked to learn that Japan had started the war by bombing Pearl Harbor.

newsweek:The Unlikely Peacemaker Netanyahu says he’ll ‘surprise the critics and skeptics.’ really?

The Unlikely Peacemaker

Netanyahu says he’ll ‘surprise the critics and skeptics.’ really?

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/28/can-netanyahu-make-peace-with-the-palestinians.html

Israeli prime ministers don’t usually have time for long chats with people outside their circle of advisers and deputies. Yet the day before an important speech last year, Benjamin Netanyahu spent two hours with the novelist Eyal Megged, listening to his ideas and filling several pages with notes. Just two months into his term, Netanyahu was under heavy pressure from President Obama to endorse the idea of a Palestinian state. The speech he was preparing to give at Bar-Ilan University would be a major policy address. For the better part of the afternoon, Megged and a second novelist he’d brought with him, David Grossman, suggested passages they’d written in advance, soaring prose about reaching out to the Arab world and ending the long conflict with the Palestinians. “I thought he should open with something dramatic, a big gesture,” the 62-year-old Megged told me over coffee in Jerusalem one morning recently.

Megged has a complicated relationship with Netanyahu. They became friends a decade ago, after Netanyahu read one of his books and sent him a flattering note. Since then, Megged and his wife have regularly spent time with the Netanyahus. But the association appears to have hurt the novelist’s career. Megged says many of his fellow writers, who tend toward the left politically, have shunned him. The left-leaning Haaretz newspaper stopped reviewing his books.

When Megged watched the speech on television the next day, he was dumbfounded. Netanyahu had failed to in-corporate a single phrase the writers had suggested (in a phone conversation, Grossman confirmed Megged’s account). Though Netanyahu did give the idea of a Palestinian state a conditional nod, the tepid endorsement lacked the generosity of spirit the two novelists had hoped to inject in the text. Megged took it not only as a political affront but also a personal one. “I told my wife many times since then that he [Netanyahu] appreciated the courage it took on my part to go against the tide, but he himself is not that way.”

This week Netanyahu travels to Washington for the long-anticipated start of direct talks between Israelis and Palestinians. To a large extent, their success depends on his willingness to go against the tide of just about everything in his life, past and present—his right-wing coalition, his uncompromising father, and his own record of rejectionism. Netanyahu said last week he was ready to “surprise the critics and the skeptics” by seriously pursuing an agreement. Getting there will require bold leadership on the Palestinian side as well. But while Netanyahu has pledged to make dramatic compromises in exchange for security guarantees, he has painstakingly avoided details, fueling suspicions that his new peace mantle is there only to deflect pressure from Washington. “I don’t think anyone knows exactly what he has in mind,” says an aide who worked closely with Netanyahu during his current term as prime minister, asking not to be quoted by name. “Even in closed meetings, he doesn’t go into detail.”

That caginess has not been his trademark. In fact, for much of his career Netanyahu has been the most consistently and outspokenly hardline politician in Israel. He spent his first term as prime minister in the 1990s trying to undo the impact of the Oslo peace accords. He has written two books with long sections on why a Palestinian state would pose a mortal danger to Israel (those sections were not deleted from the latest edition of A Durable Peace: Israel and Its Place Among the Nations, even though it was published last October, four months after Netanyahu publicly backed the idea of Palestinian statehood). Netanyahu opposed Israel’s evacuation of settlements from Gaza in 2005 and, on the eve of his election last year, assured viewers of Israel’s Channel 2 television he would not dismantle a single settlement in the West Bank. “I think anyone with eyes in his head understands that today, any territory you evacuate will be taken over by Israel’s bitterest foes,” he said just 18 months ago.

Is Netanyahu being honest when he now says he’s ready to compromise? An official who works with him says the prime minister’s reserve should not be mistaken for intransigence: announcing concessions upfront would be a bad negotiating strategy. Certainly, Israeli leaders are entitled to change their minds. Netanyahu’s two immediate predecessors, Ehud Olmert and Ariel Sharon, had track records as hawkish as his. Yet as prime ministers, Sharon withdrew from Gaza, and Olmert offered Palestinians more than 90 percent of the West Bank. For both men, the change was bound up with a recognition that Palestinians would eventually outnumber Jews if Israel maintained the status quo, forcing the country to sacrifice either its Jewish character or its claim to democracy. Both men talked openly about their transformation.

Netanyahu, by contrast, doesn’t believe Israel faces a demographic threat, according to Naftali Bennett, who served as his chief of staff from 2006 to 2008. “He thinks it’s a bluff.” And he has not bothered to explain how Israel could live with the very danger—a Palestinian state—he has been warning about for so long. (In his book, Netanyahu says no number of security guarantees could provide the strategic advantage Israel gets from keeping troops in key areas of the West Bank.) What he has talked about repeatedly is the way the Palestinian bombings of the second intifada and the Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007 have vindicated his positions. “All the events that happened subsequent to his first premiership only reaffirmed and strengthened his beliefs,” says Bennett, who now heads the Jewish settlers’ main leadership body, the Yesha Council.

Then there’s the kin factor. Sharon and Olmert were both prodded toward the political center by close family members. In Sharon’s case it was his son Omri. Olmert had his wife, Aliza, an artist and political dove. People who know Netanyahu say his stern and unswervingly hawkish father, Benzion, remains the most influential person in his orbit. Netanyahu himself has described consulting his father before major decisions. “You have to listen carefully to the father when you judge Bibi,” says Megged, who has spent time with them together, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. “Bibi is not a rebel. He can’t get himself free from this tie with his father. Benzion sits on his shoulder and he can’t move.” A former adviser to Netanyahu concurs: “His father has a huge influence on him. Huge.”

Benzion was a towering figure in the pre-state Revisionist movement, the stream of Zionism that opposed even the slightest territorial compromise with the Arabs. Just after his 99th birthday last year, he gave a long interview to the Israeli newspaper Maariv in which he said, among other things: “If it’s possible, we should conquer any disputed territory in the land of Israel. Conquer and hold it, even if it brings us years of war.” I asked Megged to describe a particular interaction between the two Netanyahus. “They are both very coldblooded people,” he said. “You don’t see warmth but you see the respect. You see that influence on him.” (An official in Netanyahu’s office said in response: “The idea that the prime minister is not his own independent political player doesn’t stand up to reality.”)

Still, some key people are convinced that his pivot is real. The list includes a number of foreign leaders and a few influential Israeli journalists. In his conversations with them, Netanyahu has said he wants to get past the paralysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order to focus on the larger threat: a nuclear Iran. In his telling, the main obstacle is Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who has tarried for more than a year while Netanyahu froze settlement expansion and practically begged for direct negotiations. The argument is not meritless. The fact that Palestinians have twice in the past decade walked away from far-reaching Israeli offers should certainly raise questions about their ability to close a deal. Aluf Benn, the respected reporter and columnist for Haaretz, wrote about having such a conversation with Netanyahu late last year and then surprised many of his readers with the words: “I believe him.”

But plenty of other people don’t. In late September, when the moratorium on settlement expansion ends, Netanyahu will have a chance to prove the skeptics wrong. But his hawkish coalition members will almost certainly vote to resume construction in the West Bank. “I think it should be clear,” Likud cabinet minister Benny Begin told me recently, “we will build in all our towns and villages in Judea and Samaria [the biblical term for the West Bank] with no distinction between this bloc and that bloc.” And the idea that Netanyahu would dump his right-wing partners to form a more centrist coalition seems unlikely, according to an adviser who has worked with him on and off for years: “Bibi always quotes [American political consultant] Arthur Finkelstein—‘Keep your base. That’s the most important thing.’ ” On that point, Netanyahu has something in common with Abbas, who faces challenges from within his party and from the rival Hamas. But in one way at least, the Palestinian leader has it easier than his Israeli counterpart. Abbas must prove he can deliver an agreement. Netanyahu has the added burden of proving he really wants one.

jpost:PM distances himself from Yosef's rant

PM distances himself from Yosef's rant

http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=186372

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Sunday distanced himself from inflammatory comments made by Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef over the weekend in which he wished a plague on Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian people.

A statement released by the Prime Minister's Office said that Yosef's comments "don't represent the views of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or the Israeli government. Israel entered into negotiations out of a desire to progress with the Palestinians toward an agreement that will end the conflict and ensure peace, security and good neighborly relations between the two nations."

Earler Sunday, Palestinian Authority officials claimed that Yosef had essentially called for the "genocide of the Palestinian people" when he made comments about Abbas and the Palestinian people in his weekly sermon.

Palestinian Authority Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat said that Yosef's comments are "an absolute insult to our efforts to progress the peace process."

Rabbi Yosef called Abbas "an evil hater of Israel" in his weekly sermon and reportedly said that God should send a plague to Abbas and the Palestinians, and they should be finished.

Four days before the opening of new negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, Yosef also wished death on the Palestinian nation and prayed that "the Lord strike them down."

Erekat condemned the fact that there had not been an official reaction from the Knesset.

MK Ahmed Tibi (UAL-Ta'al) also condemned Rabbi Yosef's comments and claimed that the rabbi became a spreader of hate a long time ago.

Tibi suggested that Yosef think twice before he calls for the death of all the evil people because without paying attention he is wishing for his own death and shooting himself in the foot.

Shas veteran Yehuda Avidan responded by saying that anyone who knows Yosef knows that there is no one who wants and seeks peace more than him. Avidan explained that the rabbi sees the Palestinians as Israel's enemies but wants there to be peace.

Until now Yosef has steered clear of commenting on anything related to diplomatic negotiations. At the end of the 1980s Yosef ruled that the country should seek peace, even at the price of painful concessions, given the supremacy of the Jewish value of 'pikuakh nefesh' (saving of life).

Last year, Yosef attacked the secular education system, saying that some secular people were "fools" who behave like "animals." Giving a sermon on kiddush customs (the blessing over wine), Yosef said that while Torah students and synagogue goers knew how to make kiddush, "there are some who studied in secular schools like foolish fools - they don't know what a kiddush is and then eat like animals." He has since said that people who send their children to learn in secular schools will suffer punishment in this world and the next.

In 2009 Yosef also caused an uproar after arguing that those murdered in the Holocaust were a reincarnation of sinners from past generations.

MEMRI:Pakistani Websites Accuse CIA of Causing Pakistan Flooding: (HAARP is being Used in Pakistan)

Pakistani Websites Accuse CIA of Causing Pakistan Flooding: (HAARP is being Used in Pakistan)

http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/2579358/posts
MEMRI ^

Posted on Saturday, August 28, 2010 7:16:05 PM by milestogo

Pakistani Websites Accuse CIA of Causing Pakistan Flooding: U.S. Research Program 'HAARP is being Used in Pakistan [to Cause Artificial Floods]'; 'They Can't Win a War with Nuclear-Armed Pakistan ... So They Have Other Ways to Do It'

"We Have Investigatd This Matter and Concluded That HAARP is Being Used in Pakistan [to Cause Floods]"

Following are excerpts from an August 6 report titled "Pakistan Flood: HAARP Used in Pakistan? – Urgent:"[iv]

"All started suddenly and thousands died, millions displaced, hundreds of villages vanished in the matter of just four days!... Strangely, there were no weather warnings, no alarms... none of the global offices were able to predict the torrential downpours that precipitated the worst floods in Pakistan's history. Was HAARP involved?

"We have investigated this matter and concluded that HAARP is being used in Pakistan; and of course how can we ignore India's Baglihar & Kabul's Sarobi dams' contribution in this perfect plan!

"'This Flood Disaster is More Manmade than Natural' [cites another report released by pakistankakhudahafiz.com]‏. The choice of starting point was perfect... all the flood is going in downstream i.e. Khyber (Hills) to Karachi (Sea)... It is designed to submerge all of Pakistan and produce the worst crises and chaos ever... They know they can't win a war with nuclear-armed Pakistan – it would be mutual destruction, so they have other ways to do it!

"'Andrei Areshev, a renowned Russian scholar and the deputy head of the Strategic Culture Foundation, warns that the current devastating fires raging throughout Russia could have been triggered by American weather weapons – what is now becoming the infamous HAARP Technology... [cites website link]'

'"It isn't just conspiracy theorists who are concerned about HAARP. The European Union called the project a global concern and passed a resolution calling for more information on its health and environmental risks. Despite those concerns, officials at HAARP insist the project is no more sinister than a radio science research facility [cites a TV documentary on HAARP by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation].

"'HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program) is a little-known yet critically important U.S. military defense program which has generated quite a bit of controversy over the years in certain circles. Though denied by HAARP officials, some respected researchers allege that secret electromagnetic warfare capabilities of HAARP are designed to forward the U.S. military's stated goal of achieving full-spectrum dominance by the year 2020. Others go so far as to claim that HAARP can and has been used for weather modification, to cause earthquakes and tsunamis, to disrupt global communications systems, and more... [cites a video weblink]"'

Saturday, August 28, 2010

nytimes: For Obama, Steep Learning Curve as Chief in Time of War

...Mr. Obama has made a point of seeking his own information, scribbling questions in memo margins and scouring the Internet.

...He has surfed the Internet at night to look into the toll on troops.

For Obama, Steep Learning Curve as Chief in Time of War

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/29/world/29commander.html?pagewanted=1&src=un&feedurl=http://json8.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.jsonp

WASHINGTON — President Obama rushed to the Oval Office when word arrived one night that militants with Al Qaeda in Yemen had been located and that the military wanted to support an attack by Yemeni forces. After a quick discussion, his counterterrorism adviser, John O. Brennan, told him the window to strike was closing.

“I’ve got two minutes here,” Mr. Brennan said.

“O.K.,” the president said. “Go with this.”

While Mr. Obama took three sometimes maddening months to decide to send more forces to Afghanistan, other decisions as commander in chief have come with dizzying speed, far less study and little public attention.

He is the first president in four decades with a shooting war already raging the day he took office — two, in fact, plus subsidiaries — and his education as a commander in chief with no experience in uniform has been a steep learning curve. He has learned how to salute. He has surfed the Internet at night to look into the toll on troops. He has faced young soldiers maimed after carrying out his orders. And he is trying to manage a tense relationship with the military.

Along the way, he has confronted some of the biggest choices a president can make, often deferring to military advisers yet trying to shape the decisions with his own judgments — too much at times for the Pentagon, too little in the view of his liberal base. His evolution from antiwar candidate to leader of the world’s most powerful military will reach a milestone on Tuesday when he delivers an Oval Office address to formally end the combat mission in Iraq while defending his troop buildup in Afghanistan.

A year and a half into his presidency, Mr. Obama appears to be a reluctant warrior. Even as he draws down troops in Iraq, he has been abundantly willing to use force to advance national interests, tripling forces in Afghanistan, authorizing secret operations in Yemen and Somalia, and escalating drone strikes in Pakistan. But advisers said he did not see himself as a war president in the way his predecessor did. His speech on Tuesday is notable because he talks in public about the wars only sporadically, determined not to let them define his presidency.

Where George W. Bush saw the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan as his central mission and opportunities to transform critical regions, Mr. Obama sees them as “problems that need managing,” as one adviser put it, while he pursues his mission of transforming America. The result, according to interviews with three dozen administration officials, military leaders and national security experts, is an uneasy balance between a president wary of endless commitment and a military worried he is not fully invested in the cause.

“He’s got a very full plate of very big issues, and I think he does not want to create the impression that he’s so preoccupied with these two wars that he’s not addressing the domestic issues that are uppermost in people’s minds,” Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said in an interview. Mr. Obama, though, has devoted enormous time and thought to finding the right approaches, Mr. Gates added. “From the first, he’s been decisive and he’s been willing to make big decisions,” he said.

Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who sometimes advises Mr. Obama, said the president was grappling with harsh reality. “He came into office with a very sound strategic vision,” Mr. Reed said, “and what has happened in the intervening months is, as with every president, he is beginning to understand how difficult it is to translate a strategic vision into operational reality.”

A former adviser to the president, who like others insisted on anonymity in order to discuss the situation candidly, said that Mr. Obama’s relationship with the military was “troubled” and that he “doesn’t have a handle on it.” The relationship will be further tested by year’s end when Mr. Obama evaluates his Afghanistan strategy in advance of his July deadline to begin pulling out. As one administration official put it, “His commander in chief role is about to get tested again, and in a very dramatic way.”

Beyond the Vietnam Debate

Mr. Obama was an 11-year-old in Hawaii when the last American combat troops left Vietnam, too young to have participated in the polarizing clashes of the era or to have faced the choices the last two presidents did about serving. “He’s really the first generation of recent presidents who didn’t live through that,” said David Axelrod, his senior adviser. “The whole debate on Vietnam, that was not part of his life experience.”

Running for president of a country at war, he had plenty to learn, even basics like military ceremonies and titles. His campaign recruited retired generals to advise him. But it still took time to adjust when he became president. The first time he walked into a room of generals, an aide recalled, he was surprised when they stood. “Come on, guys, you don’t have to do that,” he said, according to the aide.

Perhaps his most important tutor has been Mr. Gates, the defense secretary appointed by Mr. Bush and the first kept on by a president of another party. They are an unlikely pair, a 49-year-old Harvard-trained lawyer turned community activist and a 66-year-old veteran of cold war spy intrigues and Republican administrations. But they are both known for unassuming discipline, and they bonded through weekly meetings and shared challenges.

Mr. Obama has relied on Mr. Gates as his ambassador to the military and deferred to him repeatedly. When Mr. Gates wanted to force out Gen. David D. McKiernan in May 2009 as commander in Afghanistan in favor of Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, Mr. Obama signed off. Likewise, cognizant of Bill Clinton’s ill-fated effort to end the ban on gay and lesbian soldiers, Mr. Obama let Mr. Gates set a slow pace in overturning the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, even though it has disappointed gay rights advocates.

Even on his signature campaign promise to pull out of Iraq, Mr. Obama compromised in the early days of his tenure to accommodate military concerns. Instead of the 16-month withdrawal of combat forces he promised, he accepted a 19-month timetable, and he agreed to leave behind 50,000 for now rather than a smaller force.

But as he grows in the job, Mr. Obama has shown more willingness to set aside Mr. Gates’s advice. When General McChrystal got in trouble in June for comments by him and his staff in Rolling Stone magazine, Mr. Gates favored reprimanding the commander. Mr. Obama decided instead to oust him and replace him with Gen. David H. Petraeus, who led the troop increase in Iraq.

“My first reaction was if McChrystal with his experience and his contacts and his knowledge were pulled out, that could have real consequence for the war,” Mr. Gates said. “It never even occurred to me — I kicked myself subsequently — to move Petraeus over there. When the president raised that with me in a private meeting, it was like a light bulb went on — yes, that will work.”

Just as keeping Mr. Gates provided political cover against the weak-on-defense Democratic image, Mr. Obama surrounded himself with uniformed officers. He kept Mr. Bush’s war coordinator, Lt. Gen. Douglas E. Lute, and tapped Gen. James L. Jones as national security adviser. “Picking General Jones was in part inoculation,” said Bruce O. Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who led Mr. Obama’s first Afghanistan review.

But they were not always in control. General Jones has often been eclipsed by younger foreign policy advisers with closer relationships with the president. Mr. Obama ended up pushing out Adm. Dennis C. Blair as director of national intelligence, and approved the Afghan troop increase despite the warnings of Lt. Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, his ambassador to Kabul.

Although General McChrystal was described in Rolling Stone as calling Mr. Obama intimidated in meeting with military commanders early in his tenure, other attendees disagreed. “He didn’t look to me like he was one bit intimidated,” Mr. Riedel said. “He did look like someone who was taking it all in and a bit frustrated that what seemed for him to be simple questions he was getting complicated answers to — like how many troops do you really need?”

Wars as a Distraction

With the economy in tatters and health care on his agenda, Mr. Obama was determined to keep the wars from becoming a major distraction. When he held a videoconference on Iraq on his first full day in office, officials recalled, he said: “Guys, before you start, there’s one thing I want to say to you and that is I do not want to screw this up.”

But while he had given much thought to ending the war in Iraq, he had not spent as much time contemplating Afghanistan despite a campaign promise to send more troops. When he took office, he found an urgent request to reinforce the flagging effort. Warned by the generals that he could not wait to study the issue, he overruled Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and sent 21,000 more troops. “Both he and I frankly thought at that point we were done,” Mr. Gates recalled. Within months, though, General McChrystal asked for 40,000 more troops. “I certainly was surprised when General McChrystal came in with the request,” he said, “and I think the president was as well.”

Reliant on Mr. Gates, Mr. Obama has made limited efforts to know his service chiefs or top commanders, and has visited the Pentagon only once, not counting a Sept. 11 commemoration. He ended Mr. Bush’s practice of weekly videoconferences with commanders, preferring to work through the chain of command and wary, aides said, of being drawn into managing the wars.

So General McChrystal’s request for even more reinforcements exposed the mutual mistrust, particularly after it was leaked to the news media. The president complained he was being boxed in while the military worried whether politics would drive the decision. At one point Denis R. McDonough, deputy national security adviser, pressed Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about stopping leaks by the military, according to people informed about the conversation. Admiral Mullen asked pointedly if that would also apply to the White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, who was skeptical of the troop increase request.

“If I had been in the White House, I would have been suspicious,” Mr. Gates said. “The leak of McChrystal’s assessment was obviously very damaging in the assessment process because it put the president on the spot.” He added: “My position was this is not a deliberate attempt to jam the president. It’s indiscipline.”

Last December, the president gave the military 30,000 more troops, but also a ticking clock. He would start pulling troops out in July, on the grounds that if there was not visible progress by then, it would mean the strategy was not working. Some saw that as a sop to his antiwar base. Others considered it his way of reasserting control over a military that knows how to outmaneuver the White House.

“He didn’t understand or grasp the military culture,” said Lawrence J. Korb, a former Pentagon official at the liberal Center for American Progress. “He got over that particular quandary and put them back in the box by saying, ‘O.K., I’m giving you 18 months.’ ”

One adviser at the time said Mr. Obama calculated that an open-ended commitment would undermine the rest of his agenda. “Our Afghan policy was focused as much as anything on domestic politics,” the adviser said. “He would not risk losing the moderate to centrist Democrats in the middle of health insurance reform and he viewed that legislation as the make-or-break legislation for his administration.”

White House officials reject the linkage, but said Mr. Obama believed that the wars should be judged against other priorities. Preparing to announce his decision last December, he read Dwight D. Eisenhower’s farewell address and included a line in his own speech at West Point: “Each proposal must be weighed in the light of a broader consideration: the need to maintain balance in and among national programs.”

Hungry for Information

Mr. Obama has made a point of seeking his own information, scribbling questions in memo margins and scouring the Internet. At one meeting, he surprised the generals by citing a study of post-traumatic stress disorder among soldiers serving repeat tours.

“He reads a lot,” said General Jones, the national security adviser. “He studies issues before he comes to the table. That’s another thing the military mind, if there is such a thing, appreciates. When he sits down to talk about an issue, he’s done his homework.”

Facing relentless and elusive foes, Mr. Obama has turned increasingly to the sort of strikes he authorized in Yemen and the drones in Pakistan, a form of warfare with little risk to American lives even though critics question its wisdom, effectiveness or even morality.

But Mr. Obama also confronts the consequences of the direct combat he has ordered. Last year, he flew to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware to greet soldiers’ coffins. During a later meeting with advisers, Mr. Obama expressed irritation at doubters of his commitment. “If I didn’t think this was something worth doing,” he said, “one trip to Dover would be enough to cause me to bring every soldier home. O.K.?”

In March, during his only trip to Afghanistan in office, he met a wounded soldier, maybe 19, who had lost three limbs. “I go into a place like this, I go to Walter Reed — it’s just hard for me to think of anything to say,” an emotional Mr. Obama told advisers as he left.

The moment stuck with him. Three months later, after ousting General McChrystal, Mr. Obama marched into the Situation Room and cited the teenage triple amputee as he reprimanded advisers for the infighting that had led to the general’s forced resignation. “We have a lot of kids on the ground acting like adults and we have a lot of adults in this room acting like kids,” he lectured.

The schisms among his team, though, are born in part out of uncertainty about his true commitment. His reticence to talk much publicly about the wars may owe to the political costs of alienating his base as well as the demands of other issues. Senior Pentagon and military officials said they understood that he presided over a troubled economy, but noted that he was not losing 30 American soldiers a month on Wall Street.

The sensitivities about calling attention to the unpopular war in Afghanistan, and particularly America’s problematic partner, played out when President Hamid Karzai visited last May. General McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry wanted to take Mr. Karzai to Fort Campbell in Kentucky to honor troops leaving for Afghanistan, but the White House objected that it sent the wrong message, as if Americans were fighting for Mr. Karzai. They compromised by having Mr. Gates go as well, but without his Washington press corps.

“From an image point of view, he doesn’t seem to embrace it, almost like you have to drag him into doing it,” said Peter D. Feaver, a Bush adviser with military contacts. “There’s deep uncertainty and perhaps doubt in the military about his commitment to see the wars through to a successful conclusion.”

Much of the public too is confused about the president’s Afghan strategy, as White House aides and their critics acknowledge. “There have only been a few moments when he’s tried to focus the nation’s attention on Afghanistan because, quite frankly, it’s competing with the other priorities,” said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who opposes the strategy. “It’s probably one of the reasons public support has fallen, because they see the costs but they don’t know his thinking about it.”

If the flap over General McChrystal underscored the tensions, Mr. Obama’s response may have actually helped ease them. “Ironically enough, the McChrystal firing helped a lot because Obama handled it exactly the way most senior military officers would have handled it if they had been in his shoes,” said Stephen Biddle, a critic of Mr. Obama’s withdrawal deadline at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Perhaps more important was his selection of General Petraeus to take over. The choice brings Mr. Obama full circle. As a senator, he opposed the Iraq troop increase led by General Petraeus, and the two had a wary encounter in Baghdad when Mr. Obama visited as a candidate in 2008. After Mr. Obama came to the White House, General Petraeus no longer had the regular interactions he had with Mr. Bush.

But Mr. Obama came to appreciate General Petraeus’s intelligence and dedication. He invited the general to fly on Air Force One with him to West Point for his speech announcing the Afghanistan troop increase. Six months later, after ousting General McChrystal, the president sent his personal aide to find General Petraeus and bring him to the Oval Office for a one-on-one talk. The general accepted the appointment without even a chance to call his wife.

“It’s an extraordinary irony,” said Mr. Riedel, the former Obama adviser. “He, like Bush before him, has put all his bets down on the table on one guy — and it’s the same guy.”