[CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE:2004:AL-QAEDA HAS MANPADS]

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Homeland Security: Protecting Airliners from
Terrorist Missiles

[CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE:2004:AL-QAEDA HAS MANPADS]

Updated October 22, 2004

CRS Report for Congress (CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE)


As in the case of military arsenals, estimates of
shoulder-fired SAMs in terrorist hands vary considerably. Estimates range from
5,00013 to 150,00014 of various missile types, but most experts agree that the vast
majority of them are IR guided and are likely SA-7 derivatives, versions of which are
reportedly possessed by at least 56 countries.15

Some examples attest to the large numbers of these missiles in circulation. As
of December 2002, coalition forces in Afghanistan had reportedly captured 5,592
shoulder- fired SAMs from the Taliban and Al Qaeda.16 Some of these included U.S.
Stinger and British Blowpipe missiles believed to have been left over from the
Afghan-Soviet War. Shoulder-fired missiles continue to be seized routinely during
coalition raids, suggesting that Taliban and Al Qaeda forces operating in and around
Afghanistan still have access to an undetermined number of these systems. In Iraq,
recent press reports indicate that 4,000 to 5,000 shoulder-fired SAMs may be
available to Iraqi insurgent forces.17
United States Central Command

(USCENTCOM) officials were unable to provide an unclassified update on the
number and types of shoulder-fired missiles captured, turned in, or found in
Afghanistan and Iraq as of September 2004, although classified data of this nature
is being tracked by USCENTCOM and the Department of Defense (DOD).18 Africa,
the region where most terrorist attacks with these missiles have occurred, reportedly
also has a large quantity of shoulder-fired SAMs left over from Cold War
sponsorships and the numerous civil wars of that era.19

Non-State Groups With Shoulder-Fired SAMs

Unclassified estimates suggest that between 25 and 30 non-state groups possess
shoulder-fired SAMs. Table 1 depicts non-state groups believed to possess shoulder-
fired SAMs through the 1996-2001 time period. Additional groups may have
obtained missiles since 2001 but details at the unclassified level are not known.
Actual or estimated quantities of these weapons attributed to non-state groups at the
unclassified level are also unknown.

12

Thomas B. Hunter, “The Proliferation of MANPADS,” Jane’s, November 28, 2002, p. 1.

13

Soyoung Ho, “Plane Threat” Washington Monthly, April 2003, p. 2.

14

“Mombasa Attack Highlights Increasing MANPADs Threat,” p. 28.

15

Ho, p. 2.

16

“SAMs-The New Air Security Threat,” Travel Insider, December 12, 2002, p. 6.

17

“Shoulder-Fired Missiles Not too Hard to Find,” Associated Press, August 17, 2003.

18

CRS requested this data from the USCENTCOM Legislative Affairs Office on September
22, 2004. USCENTCOM was willing to share this classified data with appropriately-cleared
CRS staff but the use of classified data in these reports is not permitted.

19

“Shoulder-Fired Missiles Not too Hard to Find.”